So, the property market is poor, house prices lowering and an economic outlook not as positive as we would like to see. It really is a terrible state of affairs isn't it?
Well, no actually. Firstly let me acknowledge that we are seeing a correction in house prices which, after a period of sustained growth is not all together surprising. A deeper look at the recent movement in house prices however will reveal, from our perspective on the shop floor, that below 600,000 there has been a notable correction, between 600,000 and 1.0m a much lesser correction and above 1.0m no change at all in the period August to October 07. During these months, when the phrase "sub prime" became the new buzz word for economic decline impacting negatively on the housing market, I have witnessed property sales below 1.0m relatively stable in volume terms but with transaction values lower by around 5%. Sales above 1.0m. have shown a healthy upturn in volume without any lowering of transaction values.
What you read in the newspapers about the property market is often created from information retrieved from the Land Registry on data about house sales completion. It is out of date by as much as three months and therefore what we experience on the shop floor today is often different to that which you will read about in the newspapers. Recent commentary about a 5% reduction in property values is old news, the market has already corrected and moved on with buyers taking advantage of the attractive pricing in today's market. Trust your agent to give you the most accurate and up to the minute commentary about the market, because the agent is exposed to today's market not outdated statistics.
The current feel in the market is far away from a property crash! With the benefit of age and experience I believe I am qualified to make such a statement, having started my career in the 73/74 oil crisis years witnessing builders and agents going out of business in hoards, struggled personally and corporately with 15% interest rate levels, managed a business with 200 plus employees through the 87 to 89 property crash witnessing a 35% drop in both volume and transaction values and navigated successfully through the early 1990's downturn.
Not surprisingly, today I remain positive about the state of the U.K. property market.
John Holden - Chairman and Managing Director |